This script contains code to reproduce statistical analyses and figures for Experiment 1 in the following manuscript:
Rosenbaum, G.M., Grassie, H.L., & Hartley, C.A. (2022). Valence asymmetries in learning account for age differences in risky choice and predict individual differences in subsequent memory. eLife. https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.64620
Age: Mean = 17.63, Standard deviation = 5.76
Gender: N males = 30, N females = 32
| WASI | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 109.71 | 106.51 – 112.91 | 68.68 | 60.00 | <0.001 |
| Age_Z | -2.07 | -5.29 – 1.15 | -1.29 | 60.00 | 0.203 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.027 / 0.011 | ||||
| WASI | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 108.82 | 104.00 – 113.64 | 45.19 | 59.00 | <0.001 |
| Age_Z | -2.02 | -5.27 – 1.23 | -1.25 | 59.00 | 0.218 |
| Age_Z^2 | 0.91 | -2.74 – 4.55 | 0.50 | 59.00 | 0.620 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.031 / -0.002 | ||||
There is no relationship between WASI and linear or quadratic age
Total number of missed trials across all participants: 37
Maximum number of missed trials for a single participant: 7
Total number of trials (including missed trials): 11346
Is quadratic better than linear?
Quadratic is not better, reporting linear results
| TestAccuracy | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | z | p | Odds Ratios | CI |
| (Intercept) | 13.21 | <0.001 | 4.28 | 3.45 – 5.31 |
| TrialNum | 8.56 | <0.001 | 2.03 | 1.72 – 2.38 |
| Age_Z | 0.51 | 0.612 | 1.06 | 0.86 – 1.30 |
| TrialNum * Age_Z | 0.22 | 0.830 | 1.02 | 0.87 – 1.19 |
| Random Effects | ||||
| σ2 | 3.29 | |||
| τ00 SubjectNumber | 0.51 | |||
| τ11 SubjectNumber.TrialNum | 0.20 | |||
| ρ01 SubjectNumber | 0.91 | |||
| ICC | 0.18 | |||
| N SubjectNumber | 62 | |||
| Observations | 2592 | |||
| Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 | 0.113 / 0.269 | |||
Mean test trial accuracy by block:
Block 1 = 0.63
Block 2 = 0.8
Block 3 = 0.84
Appendix 1–figure 1
Mean accuracy = 0.85
Accuracy and age:
Linear age pattern because quadratic isn’t significant:
| RiskySafeAcc | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 0.85 | 0.80 – 0.89 | 37.90 | 60.00 | <0.001 |
| Age_Z | -0.02 | -0.06 – 0.03 | -0.88 | 60.00 | 0.382 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.013 / -0.004 | ||||
Mean accuracy = 0.84
Accuracy and age:
Linear age pattern because quadratic isn’t significant:
| ValueAcc | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 0.84 | 0.79 – 0.90 | 31.65 | 60.00 | <0.001 |
| Age_Z | 0.02 | -0.04 – 0.07 | 0.65 | 60.00 | 0.516 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.007 / -0.009 | ||||
Total number of RTs removed across all participants: 22
Maximum number for a given participant: 9
Total number of trials with responses (excluding trials with no response): 11309
Linear age pattern because quadratic isn’t significant:
| LogRT | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | t | df | p | Estimates | CI |
| (Intercept) | -8.44 | 11279.00 | <0.001 | -0.32 | -0.40 – -0.25 |
| TrialNum | 1.14 | 11279.00 | 0.254 | 0.01 | -0.01 – 0.03 |
| Age_Z | -1.07 | 11279.00 | 0.283 | -0.04 | -0.12 – 0.03 |
| TrialNum * Age_Z | -2.10 | 11279.00 | 0.036 | -0.02 | -0.04 – -0.00 |
| Random Effects | |||||
| σ2 | 0.15 | ||||
| τ00 SubjectNumber | 0.09 | ||||
| τ11 SubjectNumber.TrialNum | 0.00 | ||||
| ρ01 SubjectNumber | -0.17 | ||||
| ICC | 0.38 | ||||
| N SubjectNumber | 62 | ||||
| Observations | 11287 | ||||
| Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 | 0.009 / 0.388 | ||||
Mean risk taking = 0.37
SD risk taking = 0.21
Was risk taking significantly different than .5 (risk-neutral)?
| Test statistic | df | P value | Alternative hypothesis | mean of x |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4.873 | 61 | 8.181e-06 * * * | two.sided | 0.3729 |
Yes, risk taking was significantly lower than .5
Reporting quadratic because it’s significantly better
| MeanRiskOverallEqEV | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 0.31 | 0.24 – 0.39 | 8.17 | 59.00 | <0.001 |
| Age_Z | -0.01 | -0.06 – 0.04 | -0.44 | 59.00 | 0.662 |
| Age_Z^2 | 0.06 | 0.00 – 0.12 | 2.14 | 59.00 | 0.036 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.077 / 0.046 | ||||
Figure 2
Reporting quadratic because it’s significantly better
| MeanRiskOverallUnEqEV | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 0.46 | 0.36 – 0.56 | 9.06 | 59.00 | <0.001 |
| Age_Z | -0.04 | -0.10 – 0.03 | -1.03 | 59.00 | 0.307 |
| Age_Z^2 | 0.09 | 0.01 – 0.16 | 2.21 | 59.00 | 0.031 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.096 / 0.065 | ||||
Appendix 1–figure 2
TD median BIC = 145.35
RSTD median BIC = 131.93
FourLR median BIC = 141.25
Utility median BIC = 131.06
| TD_BIC | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 138.25 | 124.87 – 151.62 | 20.67 | 60.00 | <0.001 |
| Age | 0.15 | -0.57 – 0.87 | 0.42 | 60.00 | 0.679 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.003 / -0.014 | ||||
| TD_BIC | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 106.74 | 66.69 – 146.79 | 5.33 | 59.00 | <0.001 |
| Age | 4.19 | -0.71 – 9.09 | 1.71 | 59.00 | 0.092 |
| Age^2 | -0.12 | -0.25 – 0.02 | -1.67 | 59.00 | 0.101 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.048 / 0.015 | ||||
| TDRS_BIC | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 136.58 | 116.92 – 156.24 | 13.90 | 60.00 | <0.001 |
| Age | -0.50 | -1.56 – 0.56 | -0.94 | 60.00 | 0.350 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.015 / -0.002 | ||||
| TDRS_BIC | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 154.80 | 94.78 – 214.82 | 5.16 | 59.00 | <0.001 |
| Age | -2.84 | -10.18 – 4.51 | -0.77 | 59.00 | 0.443 |
| Age^2 | 0.07 | -0.14 – 0.27 | 0.64 | 59.00 | 0.522 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.021 / -0.012 | ||||
| TDRS_BIC | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 136.58 | 116.92 – 156.24 | 13.90 | 60.00 | <0.001 |
| Age | -0.50 | -1.56 – 0.56 | -0.94 | 60.00 | 0.350 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.015 / -0.002 | ||||
| FourLR_BIC | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 169.52 | 105.67 – 233.36 | 5.31 | 59.00 | <0.001 |
| Age | -3.77 | -11.58 – 4.05 | -0.97 | 59.00 | 0.338 |
| Age^2 | 0.09 | -0.13 – 0.31 | 0.83 | 59.00 | 0.407 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.027 / -0.006 | ||||
| TDRS_BIC | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 136.58 | 116.92 – 156.24 | 13.90 | 60.00 | <0.001 |
| Age | -0.50 | -1.56 – 0.56 | -0.94 | 60.00 | 0.350 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.015 / -0.002 | ||||
| Util_BIC | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 166.48 | 104.53 – 228.43 | 5.38 | 59.00 | <0.001 |
| Age | -4.32 | -11.90 – 3.27 | -1.14 | 59.00 | 0.259 |
| Age^2 | 0.11 | -0.11 – 0.32 | 0.98 | 59.00 | 0.332 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.038 / 0.006 | ||||
Appendix 1–figure 5
Appendix 1–figure 6
Number of participants better fit by TD: 25
Number of participants better fit by RSTD: 37
Appendix 1–figure 11A
Median delta BIC - subject level 0.33
Number of participants better fit by Utility: 36
Number of participants better fit by RSTD: 26
Mean AI = -0.22
Standard Deviation of AI = 0.5
Reporting quadratic age effect
| TDRS_AsymmIdx | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | -0.38 | -0.57 – -0.20 | -4.20 | 59.00 | <0.001 |
| Age_Z | -0.06 | -0.18 – 0.06 | -0.97 | 59.00 | 0.338 |
| Age_Z^2 | 0.17 | 0.03 – 0.31 | 2.43 | 59.00 | 0.018 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.108 / 0.078 | ||||
Figure 3
Reporting linear age
| TDRS_AlphaPos | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 0.21 | 0.16 – 0.26 | 8.72 | 60.00 | <0.001 |
| Age_Z | -0.02 | -0.07 – 0.03 | -0.85 | 60.00 | 0.401 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.012 / -0.005 | ||||
Appendix 1–figure 10A
Reporting quadratic age
| TDRS_AlphaNeg | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 0.43 | 0.35 – 0.51 | 10.94 | 59.00 | <0.001 |
| Age_Z | -0.00 | -0.06 – 0.05 | -0.17 | 59.00 | 0.869 |
| Age_Z^2 | -0.09 | -0.15 – -0.03 | -3.01 | 59.00 | 0.004 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.133 / 0.103 | ||||
Appendix 1–figure 10B
Reporting linear age
| TDRS_Beta | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 5.75 | 4.98 – 6.52 | 14.98 | 60.00 | <0.001 |
| Age_Z | 0.56 | -0.22 – 1.33 | 1.44 | 60.00 | 0.156 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.033 / 0.017 | ||||
Appendix 1–figure 10C
Tests for normality
| Test statistic | P value |
|---|---|
| 0.8854 | 3.061e-05 * * * |
| Test statistic | P value |
|---|---|
| 0.8431 | 1.395e-06 * * * |
Not normal, need to run nonparametric test
| Test statistic | P value | Alternative hypothesis |
|---|---|---|
| 1338 | 0.01137 * | two.sided |
Median alpha+ free: 0.22
Median alpha+ forced: 0.14
Appendix 1–figure 12A
Tests for normality
| Test statistic | P value |
|---|---|
| 0.9517 | 0.01609 * |
| Test statistic | P value |
|---|---|
| 0.9313 | 0.001858 * * |
Not normal, need to run nonparametric test
| Test statistic | P value | Alternative hypothesis |
|---|---|---|
| 794 | 0.202 | two.sided |
Median alpha- free: 0.35
Median alpha- forced: 0.32
Appendix 1–figure 12B
Tests for normality
| Test statistic | P value |
|---|---|
| 0.9482 | 0.01097 * |
| Test statistic | P value |
|---|---|
| 0.927 | 0.001204 * * |
Not normal, need to run nonparametric test
| Test statistic | P value | Alternative hypothesis |
|---|---|---|
| 1377 | 0.005041 * * | two.sided |
Median AI free: -0.12
Median AI forced: -0.39
Appendix 1–figure 12C
Hit Rate:
Mean = 0.54 SD = 0.14
False Alarm Rate:
Mean = 0.24 SD = 0.15
d’:
Mean = 0.93 SD = 0.48
Do the distributions for memory after risky or safe hits deviate significantly from normality?
| Test statistic | P value |
|---|---|
| 0.9881 | 0.8097 |
| Test statistic | P value |
|---|---|
| 0.9807 | 0.438 |
No, they don’t; distributions are normal
Hits after risky choices:
Mean = 0.56 SD = 0.15
Hits after safe choices:
Mean = 0.52 SD = 0.15
Did memory significantly differ after risky vs. safe choices?
| Test statistic | df | P value | Alternative hypothesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.077 | 61 | 0.003126 * * | two.sided |
| mean of the differences |
|---|
| 0.03287 |
Yes, memory was better for images presented after risky vs. safe choices
Hits:
Reporting linear age
| Hit | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 0.54 | 0.50 – 0.57 | 30.16 | 60.00 | <0.001 |
| Age_Z | 0.03 | -0.01 – 0.06 | 1.47 | 60.00 | 0.146 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.035 / 0.019 | ||||
False Alarms:
Reporting linear age
| FA | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 0.24 | 0.20 – 0.27 | 12.79 | 60.00 | <0.001 |
| Age_Z | 0.04 | 0.00 – 0.08 | 2.13 | 60.00 | 0.037 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.070 / 0.055 | ||||
Appendix 1–figure 3A
d’
Reporting linear age
| dPrime | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 0.93 | 0.81 – 1.05 | 15.50 | 60.00 | <0.001 |
| Age_Z | -0.11 | -0.23 – 0.01 | -1.84 | 60.00 | 0.070 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.054 / 0.038 | ||||
Appendix 1–figure 3B
| RespOld | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | z | p | Odds Ratios | CI |
| (Intercept) | 1.45 | 0.147 | 1.17 | 0.94 – 1.46 |
| AIScale | -0.68 | 0.498 | 0.95 | 0.82 – 1.10 |
| AbsRPEScale | 4.75 | <0.001 | 1.19 | 1.11 – 1.28 |
| PositiveRPEC | -1.61 | 0.108 | 0.93 | 0.86 – 1.02 |
| MemIdxScaled | -5.83 | <0.001 | 0.82 | 0.76 – 0.87 |
| Age_Z | 0.32 | 0.750 | 1.02 | 0.89 – 1.17 |
| Age_Z^2 | -0.18 | 0.856 | 0.99 | 0.84 – 1.15 |
| FAScale | 4.86 | <0.001 | 1.41 | 1.23 – 1.61 |
| AIScale * AbsRPEScale | 0.43 | 0.664 | 1.01 | 0.96 – 1.07 |
| AIScale * PositiveRPEC | 1.94 | 0.052 | 1.07 | 1.00 – 1.15 |
|
AbsRPEScale * PositiveRPEC |
-0.15 | 0.878 | 0.99 | 0.93 – 1.07 |
|
(AIScale * AbsRPEScale) * PositiveRPEC |
3.45 | 0.001 | 1.12 | 1.05 – 1.19 |
| Random Effects | ||||
| σ2 | 3.29 | |||
| τ00 SubjectNumber | 0.25 | |||
| τ11 SubjectNumber.AbsRPEScale | 0.01 | |||
| τ11 SubjectNumber.MemIdxScaled | 0.05 | |||
| ρ01 | ||||
| ρ01 | ||||
| ICC | 0.07 | |||
| N SubjectNumber | 62 | |||
| Observations | 11309 | |||
| Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 | 0.049 / 0.115 | |||
Figure 4a
Figure 4b
Appendix 1–figure 13C (same as 4b but with a different title and no legend)
Including Forced as a covariate
| RespOld | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | z | p | Odds Ratios | CI |
| (Intercept) | 1.45 | 0.147 | 1.17 | 0.95 – 1.46 |
| AIScale | -0.69 | 0.489 | 0.95 | 0.82 – 1.10 |
| AbsRPEScale | 4.71 | <0.001 | 1.19 | 1.11 – 1.28 |
| PositiveRPEC | -1.59 | 0.113 | 0.93 | 0.86 – 1.02 |
| ForcedC | -0.44 | 0.664 | 0.99 | 0.95 – 1.04 |
| MemIdxScaled | -5.83 | <0.001 | 0.82 | 0.76 – 0.87 |
| Age_Z | 0.32 | 0.746 | 1.02 | 0.89 – 1.17 |
| Age_Z^2 | -0.18 | 0.856 | 0.99 | 0.84 – 1.15 |
| FAScale | 4.87 | <0.001 | 1.41 | 1.23 – 1.61 |
| AIScale * AbsRPEScale | 0.39 | 0.694 | 1.01 | 0.95 – 1.07 |
| AIScale * PositiveRPEC | 1.92 | 0.055 | 1.07 | 1.00 – 1.15 |
|
AbsRPEScale * PositiveRPEC |
-0.22 | 0.827 | 0.99 | 0.93 – 1.06 |
|
(AIScale * AbsRPEScale) * PositiveRPEC |
3.44 | 0.001 | 1.12 | 1.05 – 1.19 |
| Random Effects | ||||
| σ2 | 3.29 | |||
| τ00 SubjectNumber | 0.25 | |||
| τ11 SubjectNumber.AbsRPEScale | 0.01 | |||
| τ11 SubjectNumber.MemIdxScaled | 0.05 | |||
| τ11 SubjectNumber.ForcedC | 0.01 | |||
| ρ01 | ||||
| ρ01 | ||||
| ICC | 0.07 | |||
| N SubjectNumber | 62 | |||
| Observations | 11309 | |||
| Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 | 0.049 / 0.115 | |||
4-way interaction with forced variable
| RespOld | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | z | p | Odds Ratios | CI |
| (Intercept) | 0.67 | 0.504 | 1.08 | 0.86 – 1.37 |
| AsymmIdx | -0.71 | 0.477 | 0.90 | 0.66 – 1.21 |
| AbsRPE | 3.55 | <0.001 | 1.78 | 1.29 – 2.44 |
|
PositiveRPE [Positive Prediction Error] |
-0.53 | 0.593 | 0.92 | 0.69 – 1.24 |
| Forced [1] | -0.22 | 0.823 | 0.99 | 0.87 – 1.12 |
| MemIdxScaled | -5.81 | <0.001 | 0.82 | 0.76 – 0.88 |
| Age_Z | 0.30 | 0.765 | 1.02 | 0.89 – 1.17 |
| Age_Z^2 | -0.16 | 0.873 | 0.99 | 0.84 – 1.15 |
| FAScale | 4.95 | <0.001 | 1.41 | 1.23 – 1.62 |
| AsymmIdx * AbsRPE | -2.28 | 0.023 | 0.47 | 0.25 – 0.90 |
|
AsymmIdx * PositiveRPE [Positive Prediction Error] |
-1.22 | 0.221 | 0.73 | 0.44 – 1.21 |
|
AbsRPE * PositiveRPE [Positive Prediction Error] |
0.60 | 0.550 | 1.24 | 0.61 – 2.54 |
| AsymmIdx * Forced [1] | 0.28 | 0.777 | 1.03 | 0.83 – 1.28 |
| AbsRPE * Forced [1] | -0.49 | 0.626 | 0.88 | 0.53 – 1.46 |
|
PositiveRPE [Positive Prediction Error] * Forced [1] |
-0.46 | 0.643 | 0.90 | 0.58 – 1.40 |
|
(AsymmIdx * AbsRPE) * PositiveRPE [Positive Prediction Error] |
3.84 | <0.001 | 10.79 | 3.21 – 36.35 |
|
(AsymmIdx * AbsRPE) * Forced [1] |
-0.24 | 0.811 | 0.89 | 0.34 – 2.33 |
|
(AsymmIdx * PositiveRPE [Positive Prediction Error]) * Forced [1] |
1.53 | 0.125 | 1.78 | 0.85 – 3.70 |
|
(AbsRPE * PositiveRPE [Positive Prediction Error]) * Forced [1] |
0.38 | 0.704 | 1.25 | 0.40 – 3.89 |
|
(AsymmIdx * AbsRPE PositiveRPE [Positive Prediction Error]) Forced [1] |
-1.49 | 0.135 | 0.27 | 0.05 – 1.51 |
| Random Effects | ||||
| σ2 | 3.29 | |||
| τ00 SubjectNumber | 0.24 | |||
| τ11 SubjectNumber.AbsRPE | 0.10 | |||
| τ11 SubjectNumber.MemIdxScaled | 0.05 | |||
| ρ01 | ||||
| ρ01 | ||||
| ICC | 0.07 | |||
| N SubjectNumber | 62 | |||
| Observations | 11309 | |||
| Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 | 0.050 / 0.116 | |||
Appendix 1–figure 13A
Appendix 1–figure 13B
| RespOld | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | z | p | Odds Ratios | CI |
| (Intercept) | 1.60 | 0.109 | 1.22 | 0.96 – 1.56 |
| AIScale | -0.23 | 0.815 | 0.98 | 0.83 – 1.16 |
| AbsRPEScale | 2.22 | 0.026 | 1.11 | 1.01 – 1.23 |
| PositiveRPEC | -2.26 | 0.024 | 0.89 | 0.80 – 0.98 |
| MemIdxScaled | -4.21 | <0.001 | 0.83 | 0.76 – 0.90 |
| Age_Z | 0.33 | 0.743 | 1.03 | 0.88 – 1.20 |
| Age_Z^2 | 0.02 | 0.983 | 1.00 | 0.84 – 1.20 |
| FAScale | 3.88 | <0.001 | 1.36 | 1.16 – 1.59 |
| AIScale * AbsRPEScale | 0.40 | 0.689 | 1.01 | 0.95 – 1.08 |
| AIScale * PositiveRPEC | 0.63 | 0.529 | 1.03 | 0.94 – 1.14 |
|
AbsRPEScale * PositiveRPEC |
1.14 | 0.256 | 1.05 | 0.96 – 1.16 |
|
(AIScale * AbsRPEScale) * PositiveRPEC |
2.34 | 0.019 | 1.11 | 1.02 – 1.21 |
| Random Effects | ||||
| σ2 | 3.29 | |||
| τ00 SubjectNumber | 0.28 | |||
| τ11 SubjectNumber.AbsRPEScale | 0.00 | |||
| τ11 SubjectNumber.MemIdxScaled | 0.06 | |||
| ρ01 | ||||
| ρ01 | ||||
| ICC | 0.08 | |||
| N SubjectNumber | 62 | |||
| Observations | 4625 | |||
| Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 | 0.044 / 0.120 | |||
Appendix 1–Table 1
| RespOrdinalflip | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | z | p | Odds Ratios | CI |
| Definitely New|Maybe New | -10.56 | <0.001 | 0.25 | 0.19 – 0.32 |
| Maybe New|Maybe Old | -1.42 | 0.156 | 0.83 | 0.64 – 1.07 |
| Maybe Old|Definitely Old | 4.75 | <0.001 | 1.86 | 1.44 – 2.40 |
| AIScale | 0.11 | 0.915 | 1.01 | 0.85 – 1.20 |
| AbsRPEScale | 6.20 | <0.001 | 1.24 | 1.16 – 1.33 |
| PositiveRPEC | -2.38 | 0.017 | 0.91 | 0.84 – 0.98 |
| MemIdxScaled | -6.21 | <0.001 | 0.81 | 0.75 – 0.86 |
| Age_Z | 0.41 | 0.685 | 1.03 | 0.88 – 1.22 |
| Age_Z^2 | -1.07 | 0.286 | 0.90 | 0.74 – 1.09 |
| FAScale | 4.90 | <0.001 | 1.55 | 1.30 – 1.85 |
| AIScale * AbsRPEScale | -0.01 | 0.993 | 1.00 | 0.95 – 1.05 |
| AIScale * PositiveRPEC | 3.08 | 0.002 | 1.10 | 1.04 – 1.17 |
|
AbsRPEScale * PositiveRPEC |
-0.13 | 0.897 | 1.00 | 0.94 – 1.06 |
|
(AIScale * AbsRPEScale) * PositiveRPEC |
3.65 | <0.001 | 1.11 | 1.05 – 1.17 |
| Random Effects | ||||
| σ2 | 3.29 | |||
| τ00 SubjectNumber | 0.37 | |||
| τ11 SubjectNumber.AbsRPEScale | 0.01 | |||
| τ11 SubjectNumber.MemIdxScaled | 0.06 | |||
| ρ01 | -0.04 | |||
| -0.05 | ||||
| ICC | 0.12 | |||
| N SubjectNumber | 62 | |||
| Observations | 11309 | |||
| Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 | 0.067 / 0.175 | |||
Appendix 1–figure 4
| RespOld | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | z | p | Odds Ratios | CI |
| (Intercept) | 1.20 | 0.229 | 1.16 | 0.91 – 1.47 |
| RhoScale | -0.25 | 0.800 | 0.98 | 0.83 – 1.16 |
| AbsRPEScale | -0.36 | 0.715 | 0.84 | 0.32 – 2.17 |
| PositiveRPEC | -0.49 | 0.627 | 0.97 | 0.86 – 1.09 |
| MemIdxScaled | -5.85 | <0.001 | 0.82 | 0.76 – 0.87 |
| Age_Z | 0.33 | 0.745 | 1.02 | 0.89 – 1.17 |
| Age_Z^2 | 0.00 | 0.997 | 1.00 | 0.86 – 1.17 |
| FAScale | 4.82 | <0.001 | 1.40 | 1.22 – 1.61 |
| RhoScale * AbsRPEScale | 0.36 | 0.717 | 1.07 | 0.74 – 1.54 |
| RhoScale * PositiveRPEC | 1.21 | 0.227 | 1.06 | 0.96 – 1.17 |
|
AbsRPEScale * PositiveRPEC |
-1.06 | 0.291 | 0.65 | 0.29 – 1.45 |
|
(RhoScale * AbsRPEScale) * PositiveRPEC |
1.06 | 0.291 | 1.18 | 0.87 – 1.60 |
| Random Effects | ||||
| σ2 | 3.29 | |||
| τ00 SubjectNumber | 0.25 | |||
| τ11 SubjectNumber.MemIdxScaled | 0.05 | |||
| ρ01 | ||||
| ρ01 | ||||
| ICC | 0.07 | |||
| N SubjectNumber | 62 | |||
| Observations | 11309 | |||
| Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 | 0.045 / 0.112 | |||
Relationship between RSTD and utility RPEs for all participants:
Appendix 1–Figure 11B
Relationship between RSTD and utility RPEs for 2 representative participants:
Appendix 1–figure 11C
Appendix 1–figure 11D
Appendix 1–figure 11E
Appendix 1–figure 11F
Reporting quadratic effect
| DOSPERT_rs | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 4.17 | 3.81 – 4.53 | 23.31 | 59.00 | <0.001 |
| Age_Z | 0.15 | -0.09 – 0.39 | 1.27 | 59.00 | 0.208 |
| Age_Z^2 | -0.42 | -0.69 – -0.15 | -3.09 | 59.00 | 0.003 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.166 / 0.137 | ||||
Figure 5
| DOSPERT_rs | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 4.01 | 3.42 – 4.60 | 13.58 | 60.00 | <0.001 |
| MeanRiskAll | -0.58 | -1.80 – 0.64 | -0.95 | 60.00 | 0.347 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.015 / -0.002 | ||||
Correlation between DOSPERT score and task risk taking:
| Test statistic | df | P value | Alternative hypothesis | cor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.9478 | 60 | 0.347 | two.sided | -0.1215 |
95% CI of correlation: -0.3603 and 0.1323
| MeanRiskOverallEqEV_sim | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 0.35 | 0.28 – 0.41 | 10.70 | 59.00 | <0.001 |
| Age_Z | -0.02 | -0.07 – 0.02 | -1.02 | 59.00 | 0.310 |
| Age_Z^2 | 0.05 | 0.00 – 0.10 | 2.16 | 59.00 | 0.035 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.093 / 0.062 | ||||
Correlation between risk taking in simulated vs real data:
| Test statistic | df | P value | Alternative hypothesis | cor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.14 | 60 | 4.846e-26 * * * | two.sided | 0.9197 |
95% CI of correlation: 0.8697 and 0.951
Appendix 1–figure 9A
Appendix 1–figure 9B
| MeanRiskOverallEqEV_sim | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | t | df | p |
| (Intercept) | 0.34 | 0.28 – 0.40 | 11.15 | 59.00 | <0.001 |
| Age_Z | -0.02 | -0.06 – 0.02 | -0.97 | 59.00 | 0.336 |
| Age_Z^2 | 0.05 | 0.01 – 0.10 | 2.29 | 59.00 | 0.026 |
| Observations | 62 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.099 / 0.068 | ||||
Correlation between risk taking in simulated vs real data:
| Test statistic | df | P value | Alternative hypothesis | cor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.25 | 60 | 2.579e-22 * * * | two.sided | 0.8916 |
95% CI of correlation: 0.8258 and 0.9335
Appendix 1–figure 9C
Appendix 1–figure 9D
Call: r.test(n = 62 , r12 = 0.919695175096668 , r23 = 0.977264014393715 , r13 = 0.891630174175368 )
Test: Test of difference between two correlated correlations
t:
| cor |
|---|
| 2.583 |
p:
| cor |
|---|
| 0.01228 |
Appendix 1–figure 7
Table 2
| GenMod | TD | RSTD | FourLR | Util |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TD | NA | 0.98 | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| RSTD | 0.57 | NA | 0.99 | 0.65 |
| FourLR | 0.50 | 0.31 | NA | 0.39 |
| Util | 0.58 | 0.76 | 0.99 | NA |
Recoverability values are the correlation between the real parameter values and the recovered parameter values. Recoverability is reported in Table 1.
Alpha: 0.84
Beta: 0.88
Alpha +: 0.79
Alpha -: 0.88
Beta: 0.9
Alpha + Free: 0.79
Alpha - Free: 0.89
Alpha + Forced: 0.76
Alpha - Forced: 0.78
Beta: 0.9
Alpha: 0.75
Beta: 0.88
Rho: 0.88
| AILevel | meanAI | minAI | maxAI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low AI | -0.60810915 | -0.93911096 | -0.37404138 |
| Medium-Low AI | -0.21416440 | -0.37398264 | -0.07684006 |
| Medium-High AI | 0.06933452 | -0.07682883 | 0.25012080 |
| High AI | 0.54818146 | 0.25039525 | 0.96950198 |
Appendix 1–figure 8A
Appendix 1–figure 8B
Appendix 1–figure 8C
Appendix 1–figure 8D
Percent of real participants with AIs in lower 3 quadrants: 0.8064516